CFB Week 7 Recap + MNF

The NFL Makes No Sense

Record

Season-long: 65-51-1, 56.03%, +21.94 Units

CFB Newsletter 7-5-1, 58.33%, +2.5 Units

1. Recap

A pretty great weekend! We remain super cold on Thursday night football, but we battled back to secure a pretty great weekend. College football has been good to us this year and we secured our third big unit play in a row. Wyoming has been so impressive so far this year, and they almost secured us that ML bet too. The Phillies ML at + money was a nice bonus, and I’ll be adding in some MLB plays today as well.

If you’ve been following me for a while, you noticed I didn’t play any NFL games yesterday. Two reasons:

1. I was sick and didn’t feel great Sunday morning.

2. I hated the slate and struggled to find a game that I liked. I didn’t place any bets myself yesterday and I’m glad I didn’t

Sometimes it’s better to stay away if you don’t have a good feel. Yesterday was a crazy week in the NFL, and by staying away I probably saved myself 2 to 3 units. When in doubt, save your money to bet another day.

2. Preview

When I saw this game I immediately went to Chargers ML and spread. Cowboys usually generate a ton of public interest, so I think fading them with the Chargers coming off a bye week might be a heady play. The Cowboys are coming off one of the worst losses of their franchise, so I assume they will be motivated as well. The Chargers are at home for this game, but that means nothing because they have no fucking fans. Expect the crowd to be 60% Cowboys fans today. With nice weather and a mediocre atmosphere, it’s tough to resist this being an absolute shootout.

3. MNF Week 4

Cowboys at Chargers

I think when considering what I’ve written above we’ll place a small play on the Chargers to cover, and then we’ll do a small play on the ML as well. However, I think this game lines up really nicely for a couple of bets that favor the over as well. However, I don’t feel comfortable taking the full-blown over so I’m going to take some player props I think have value.

Picks:

1 Unit: Chargers +1.5 -110

.5 Unit: Chargers ML +105

1 Unit: Austin Ekeler Over 87.5 Rushing + Receiving yards -115

.5 Unit: Austin Ekeler 40+ Receiving Yards +125

1 Unit: Quentin Johnson Over 30.5 Receiving Yards -115

1 Unit: Jake Fergyson Over 36.5 Receiving Yards -115

Bonus: MLB Plays

The Phillies have a deep line-up with a couple of young guys who have had success against the DBacks. I expect them to show up and play well against Gallen. I’ll also take a small flier bet on Phillie who has shown up consistently in Game 1s and will get a ton of ABs tonight. I usually don’t do parlays, but I think these might be correlated so maybe we can extract some value out of them.

Picks:

.25 Unit: Kyle Schwarber Over 0.5 HRs +350

1 Unit: Alec Bohm and Bryson Stott to both record a hit -110

.5 Unit: Johan Rojas and Brandon Marsh to both record a hit +185

PSA: Do your own research. I’m not an “expert” nor claim to be. I have a lot of fun doing this and it is by no means a viable way to make money or earn income. Gambling is an addiction;1-800-GAMBLER to seek help and speak to a national hotline representative.