NFL/CFB Week 5 Recap + MNF
We'reeee backkkk
Record
Season-long: 58-46, 55.77%, +19.44 Units
CFB Newsletter 6-5, 54.55%, +3.25 Units
NFL Newsletter 5-2, 71.43%, +3.22 Units
1. Recap
What a great weekend! Despite not having a massive winning percentage on Saturday we won our 4 unit play which helps out our bottom line immensely. We also cashed our 2 unit (stinky Dak) SNF play which was a big hit as well. We’re finding our spots and laying some money down to capitalize. Still a long season ahead, so we need to keep the momentum going strong.
I also wanted to take some time to write about Dak here. I don’t hear this a lot in the media, but doesn’t Dak remind you of Tony Romo? He’s a really good quarterback that has a tendency to choke in the big games. I remember watching Tony in high school when he had those fearsome offenses late in his career led by Dez, Witten, and Demarco. Year after year he’d make a bone-headed pick down the stretch. So much so, that I never was scared of the Cowboys as an Eagles fan when it came down to crunch time or in the playoffs. Despite it being a common narrative that Dak throws too many picks, I think it’s earned, and I can’t help but see similarities with the Cowboys choke artist that came before him. Would love to get some feedback on this take if anyone wants to sound off in the comments.
2. Preview
To be frank, I don’t really like this game especially because I’ll be paying more attention to the prime-time baseball that graces our TVs tonight. However, I’m going to stay consistent with how I’ve bet so far and pick a side that I think is wildly underrated despite getting burnt by them the past two weeks. One problem I had with betting when I was just starting was that I would only pay attention to week-to-week results. While staying up-to-date weekly is important to find narratives and momentum, if you’ve found a team that you like against the spread, it’s important that you bet them CONSISTENTLY. Whatever your analysis is, you must stick with that team you like every week, especially coming off a bad loss where Vegas may be disrespecting them. If a team goes 60% ATS during the season, you would be making a profit by the end of the season if you bet them every week. However, if you try to time the weeks, you might be left with a much worse percentage. Sometimes, it just makes sense to keep things simple and trust your analysis. I’ve learned to stick with the percentages and ride a team I like despite a few shakey performances ATS.
3. MNF Week 4
Packers v Raiders
With everything written above, I think the Packers are an underrated team. Despite their past two shaky performances, I still believe Jordan Love is much better than anticipated. I think they’re undervalued and I will continue to bet them until it becomes financially irresponsible to do so.
Picks:
1 Unit: Packers +2.5
.5 Unit: Packers ML +114